查看PDF原文 公告日期fading：2016-03-23
金茂投资-SS（06139） Jinmao Investments reported FY2015 revenues of HK$2,974mn, up 7.7%yoy, driven by the addition of new hotels, while revenue from 5 maturedhotels and offices was -1.6%/+12.0% yoy. In view of still-soft RevPAR (4 outof 5 matured hotels saw RevPAR decline yoy), EBITDA from maturedhotels, which accounted for 53% of total EBITDA in FY2015, was -3.4% yoy.DPU was HK￠43.35, down 9.7% yoy from 2014 pro forma DPU of HK￠48.00.2H15 DPU was 6.4% below our forecast, which we attribute mainly toslower-than-expected recovery of matured hotels. Management expects RevPAR growth for its Shanghai hotel to staypositive amid strong demand and limited supply. While RevPAR inShenzhen and Beijing are likely to remain stable, management sees morechallenges for Sanya amid oversupply, and has traded pricing there foroccupancy. Jinmao Tower rental EBITDA rose 10.0% yoy, andmanagement expects positive reversion to continue, with spot rental rateat Rmb 15.0 psm/day, above the 2015 average of Rmb 11.7 psm/day. Of the HK￠43.35 DPU, 26.9% was from shortfall payments from itsparentco related to its three newly-opened hotels. Going forward, we seethe challenge for Jinmao in maintaining the dividend to be ramping upthese new hotels while financial support declines, as HK$233mn of thispayment was already used by end-2015 vs a maximum of HK$300mnavailable for 2015E-17E. We see this, in addition to pressure on Sanyahotel RevPAR, resulting in a DPU decline over the next three years, andmaintain Sell. We lower our 2016E-2018E EPS up to -4%, and maintain our12-m DCF-based TP of HK$4.00 with WACC at 9.1% (unchanged). Risk:better-than-expected ramp-up at its three newly opened hotels.
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